IIT-Kanpur said that a fourth Covid-19 wave would hit in July this year.
The Center said Thursday that it hasn’t yet looked into whether the report is scientifically valid.
VK Paul, a NITI Aayog, said that the government looks at the IIT Kanpur study with respect because well-known people did it.
The science of the pandemic, its epidemiology, trend, and virology have been looked at by us, as well as its virology.
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Many things go into making projections, like data and assumptions. We have seen different estimates from time to time.
Often, they are so diverse that it is perilous to make decisions based on just a few projections.
The government looks at these estimates with respect because they are scientific works done by well-known people, PTI said.
Paul said that the government would look at the study’s scientific value. “We saw the news and found out that a group does this project at a certain place.”
We want to see it in a journal that other people have checked. We should pay attention to the assumption that has been used.
If it is scientifically and mathematically sound, it will be looked into, says a NITI Aayog think tank member.
It is not essential to make a big decision based on just one estimate or projection.
It is important to us as a way to help.
People from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT Kanpur led the study.
The fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India is likely to start on June 22 and last for four months.
The study, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet, used a statistical model to predict and found that the possible new wave will peak in mid to late August.
If a new coronavirus variant comes out and people aren’t getting vaccines, the fourth wave could be worse than in the first three.
