Professor at IIT Kanpur Manindra Agrawal stated that the third wave COVID-19, caused by
Omicron, has reached its peak in Delhi and Mumbai, as predicted by IIT’s Sutra model.
He also stated that COVID-19 would peak in Maharashtra and Gujarat this week.
In an earlier interview with ANI Mr. Agrawal, the model’s creator predicted that COVID-19’s
third wave would peak in January.
According to Mr. Agrawal, COVID-19 has spread in India faster than expected.
IN A SERIES TWEETS, the IIT Professor stated that “There are two possible reasons for this.
1) There are two groups, one with less immunity to Omicron and one with more. The first
mutant was spread to the first group, causing a rapid rise.
The spread of the mutant is now slower because the first group has been exhausted.
He added, “Second: There was a lot of concern when Omicron began spreading.
But, in the past week or so, almost everyone has concluded that it causes mild infection,
and they have decided to treat it with standard treatments instead of being tested.”
It is expected to reach its peak in Maharashtra on the 19th.
However, the trajectory is nearly flat so it may peak earlier. Gujarat is expected to reach its
peak on the 19th.
Haryana is expected to peak on the 20th.” He added.
“The COVID-19 wave in Karnataka is expected to peak on the 23rd.
The new phase has just begun, and Tamil Nadu is predicted to peak on the 25th of January.
However, the Trajectory has already started diverging.
Andhra Pradesh is expected to reach its peak on the 30th. There has been no deviation
from the desired trajectory.
He tweeted that it was likely because of the spread in at an early stage.”
“However, Haryana is expected to peak on January 20th.
He said that Assam, which is expected to peak on the 26th of January, has not yet
experienced a phase change. However, the blue curve suggests there will soon be one.
