India will face more Rainfall and Cyclonic in next few decades.
Increasing heat waves and droughts, more rainfall and more cyclonic activity are likely to occur in India and the subcontinent in the coming decades, said the report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Monday.
The first part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) entitled ‘Climate change 2021: the basis of the physical science’, which has been finalized by scientists in collaboration with 195 governments, also stated that heat waves and heat stress humid will be more intense and frequent during the 21S t century. Annual and summer monsoon precipitation will increase during this century, with greater interannual variability, he added.
For the Indian subcontinent, according to the report, “the observed mean surface temperature rise has clearly emerged outside the range of internal variability compared to 1850-1900. The extremes of heat have increased while the extremes of cold have decreased, and these trends will continue for decades to come. ”
Medium and heavy rainfall will also increase in much of Asia, he added.
The report indicated that the South and Southeast Asian monsoon has weakened in the second half of the 20th century mainly due to increased aerosols and particles due to human activity. The dry-north and wet-south pattern of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall changes are the results of the combined effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols, he said.
He also stated that summer monsoon rainfall from South and Southeast Asia and East Asia will be dominated by the effects of internal variability in the short term and that rainfall will increase in the long term. Agricultural and ecological droughts are also expected to increase in the subcontinent, he added.
Friederike Otto, Associate Director of the Institute for Environmental Change at the University of Oxford and one of the report’s authors, said: “The key finding of the report is that climate change is a fact, global warming is a fact, and warming has taken place due to human influence is now well established. We have seen rapid changes around the world, with heatwaves, heavy rains, droughts, and compound events, or a combination of heat, dry, and wind, preconditions for wildfires. We see this in all regions of the planet. There is no going back from some of these changes. Even if we limit temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, we will continue to see extreme weather events. ”
Dr. Otto added that some changes are blocked, such as rising sea levels and melting glaciers, which can now no longer be reversed. “For India, the increase in heat waves is marked by other emissions such as aerosol emissions. If there is a reduction in aerosols, we will see a further increase in heat waves, ”he said.
IITM’s Dr. Swapna Panickal, another author of the report, said that India will experience an intensification of the water cycle that will affect rainfall patterns, as well as increased monsoon rainfall.
“In the Indian Ocean, the sea temperature is warming at a higher rate than in other areas and therefore may influence other regions. The southwest monsoon has decreased in recent decades due to increased aerosols, but once this is reduced, we will experience heavy monsoon rains, “he said.
The global mean sea level in the Indian Ocean is rising to 3.7 meters annually, he said, adding that extreme sea-level events that previously occurred once every 100 years will now be seen almost every year.
The report indicated that the relative sea level in the Indian Ocean, around Asia, has risen faster than the world average, with loss of coastal area and receding coastline. The regional mean sea level will continue to rise, he added.
The report projects that climate changes will intensify in all regions in the coming decades. For 1.5 ° C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons, and shorter cold seasons, he said. At 2 ° C global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, he added.
Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more intense rains and associated floods, as well as more intense drought in many regions, according to the report. It is also affecting rain patterns. At high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decline in large parts of the subtropics, according to the report.
In addition, he stated that coastal areas will see a continuous rise in sea level throughout 21 years. S t century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. For cities, some aspects of climate change can be amplified, including heat (as urban areas are often warmer than their surroundings), flooding caused by heavy rainfall, and rising sea levels in coastal cities.
Dr Arunabha Ghosh, Executive Director of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said: “As India is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, we must recognize that even geographically distant climate changes can have consequences for our monsoons and intensity of extreme events. Our focus must be on building a climate-resilient physical and digital infrastructure along with instilling social and behavioral change in citizens and communities. In addition, it should prompt the international community to capitalize on a Global Resilience Reserve Fund to help reduce spikes in climate risks for the most vulnerable countries and create an insurance cushion against severe climate impacts. ”