Vaccines made the difference in the brutal second wave of mortality

The data, which is being collected for a vaccine tracker due to launch soon, is significant, especially in the context of public health experts expressing concern about a possible spike in cases after the festival season in October.

Furthermore, around 24% of the estimated population over 60 years of age, identified as the most vulnerable group, is not yet vaccinated.

According to the latest data, 10.09 million people in the 60-and-over category have received their first dose, and 5.58 million are fully vaccinated.

On September 9, the Ministry of Health released the first real-time data from India’s vaccination campaign, which showed almost total effectiveness in preventing serious illnesses and deaths. F

our-month data (April 18 to August 15) showed that the vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing deaths was 96.6 percent after the first dose and 97.5 percent after the second dose. In this period, a total of 2.52,873 deaths were reported.

Vaccine efficacy was calculated based on granular data on weekly deaths per million, based on ICMR Covid-19 test data, updated vaccination data on the Co-Win platform, and the official death count from the Ministry of Health.

An analysis of these granular data showed a large difference in the absolute number of deaths that were reported among the unvaccinated compared to those who were vaccinated, even during the peak of the second wave.

Consider this:

* Between the weeks ending April 18 and May 30, the age group 60 and older reported an average of 121.21 weekly deaths per million among the unvaccinated. The figure dropped to 2.64 weekly deaths per million among those who had received the first dose; and 1.76 weekly deaths per million among those who were fully vaccinated.

* In the same period, the age group 45-59 years reported an average of 39.9 weekly deaths per million among the unvaccinated; 0.87 weekly deaths per million among those who had received the first dose; and 0.42 weekly deaths per million among those who were fully vaccinated.

* In the age group 18 to 44 years, there was an average of 5.6 weekly deaths per million among the unvaccinated; 0.6 weekly deaths per million among those who had received the first dose; and 0.1 weekly deaths per million among those who were fully vaccinated.

Significantly, this was the period when the country reported a Covid-19 vaccine shortage, and only 13 percent of the estimated adult population had received the first dose.

The vaccination campaign resumed in early June. In the week ending June 6, coverage for the first dose was 15%; it touched 32 percent in the week ending Aug. 15.

In this period, there was a significant drop in the number of reported deaths among the unvaccinated. Data analysis showed almost complete protection against death among those who had received even a single dose of the vaccine.

* Between the weeks ending June 6 and August 15, the age group 60 and older reported an average of 30.04 weekly deaths per million among the unvaccinated; 0.46 weekly deaths per million among those who had received their first dose; and 0.33 weekly deaths per million among those who were fully vaccinated.

* In the same period, the age group 45 to 59 years reported an average of 8.41 weekly deaths per million among the unvaccinated; 0.11 weekly deaths per million among those who had received their first injection; and 0.10 weekly deaths per million among those fully vaccinated.

* The age group 18 to 44 years reported an average of 1.08 weekly deaths per million among the unvaccinated; 0.02 weekly deaths per million among those who had received their first injection; and 0.06 weekly deaths per million among those who were fully vaccinated.